000 WTPZ32 KNHC 082053 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kay Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 08 2022 ...CENTER OF KAY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 114.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from San Evaristo southward, and for the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula south of Puerto Cortes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Punta Abreojos to San Jose De Las Palomas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Cortes to Punta Abreojos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Abreojos southward to Puerto Cortes * San Jose De Las Palomas to the U.S./Mexico border * North of San Evaristo northward along the entire east coast of the Baja California peninsula and then southward to Guaymas in mainland Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southern California should monitor the progress of Kay and consult products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kay was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 114.3 West. Kay is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Friday. A slower northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by late Friday and continue into Saturday. A turn toward the west is expected by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Kay will pass over portions of the Baja California peninsula near Punta Eugenia for the next several hours, then move over the Pacific near and offshore of the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula later tonight, Friday, and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Kay is expected to weaken to a tropical storm in the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning for the next few hours, and are possible within the Hurricane Watch area this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the Tropical Storm Warning area and are forecast to spread northward through Friday. Strong winds not directly associated with Kay's core wind field are expected across portions of southern California and extreme southwestern Arizona beginning on Friday. For information on this wind hazard, users should see High Wind Warnings and other products from their local NWS Weather Forecast Office. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near the landfall location along the western Baja peninsula of Mexico. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday… Baja California Peninsula: 6 to 10 inches, isolated maxima of 15 inches Northwest Mainland Mexico: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maxima of 6 inches Southernmost California: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maxima of 8 inches Southwest Arizona: 1 to 2 inches with isolated maxima of 3 inches These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, with landslides possible across mountainous areas of Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Large swells are expected to spread northward along the Baja California peninsula coast, into the Gulf of California, and to southern California during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven