000 WTPZ32 KNHC 051438 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kay Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122022 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 05 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 106.4W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from Loreto on the east coast and Puerto San Andresito on the west coast southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Loreto southward to Cabo San Lucas * Cabo San Lucas northward to Puerto San Andresito A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests north of the watch area in Baja California should closely monitor the progress of Kay as Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required tonight or on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kay was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 106.4 West. Kay is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwest to north-northwest motion by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Kay is expected to pass south and southwest of southwestern Mexico through tonight, then move toward the southern Baja California peninsula on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Kay is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday. Continued strengthening is forecast through midweek. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Kay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts in outer rainbands are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the southern Baja California peninsula by early Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Kay will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Large swells are likely to reach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday and are expected to spread up the peninsula and the Gulf of California later this week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Kay is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with isolated storm total amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican Riviera and western Mexico through Wednesday night. These rainfall amounts could lead to flash flooding, including landslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi