000 WTPZ32 KNHC 241444 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021 ...RICK MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 101.7W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves closer to the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch