000 WTPZ32 KNHC 231146 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 ...RICK BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 101.5W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning and a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the coast of Mexico later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Sunday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch