000 WTPZ32 KNHC 181458 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Genevieve Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2020 ...GENEVIEVE BRINGING HIGH SURF AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN THE CENTER OF GENEVIEVE PASSES TO THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 108.0W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to La Paz * The west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the clear eye of Hurricane Genevieve was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Genevieve is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Genevieve is expected to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico today. The center of the hurricane is then forecast to move to the southwest of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is possible today. Weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and should continue through the end of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula by Wednesday afternoon, especially over higher terrain. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night or Thursday morning, especially over higher terrain. RAINFALL: Genevieve is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur and portions of the southwest coast of Mexico. SURF: Large swells produced by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southern coast of Mexico and will spread northward along the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky