000 WTPZ32 KNHC 222039 TCPEP2 BULLETIN HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013 ...RAYMOND BARELY A HURRICANE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND RAYMOND COULD STILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA SOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY IF THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN