000 WTPZ32 KNHC 121745 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011 1100 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION GETTING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...MAIN THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 93.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...10 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN