000 WTPZ32 KNHC 202040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 200 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011 ...BEATRIZ NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWESTWARD FROM LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST. BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF GUERRERO... JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN