000 WTPZ32 KNHC 200840 TCPEP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 200 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011 ...BEATRIZ GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING OFF OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 102.6W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD TO LA FORTUNA. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA WESTWARD TO EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO...AND FROM NORTH OF LA FORTUNA TO CABO CORRIENTES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST. BEATRIZ IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF ITS STRENGTH. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. RAINFALL...BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF THE STATES OF JALISCO... COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN