000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230234
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007
 
...IVO BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD TO CABO
SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES
...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK
IVO WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE ON
SUNDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IVO REACHES BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. 
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...22.1 N...111.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA