618 WTPZ31 KNHC 092043 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Priscilla Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 200 PM MST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 114.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Priscilla was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 114.9 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is anticipated later today and tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Priscilla is expected to move parallel to, but offshore of, the coast of Baja California Sur. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Priscilla is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: As Priscilla moves off the west coast of Baja California, up to an inch of rain is expected across the Baja California peninsula. For the southwestern United States, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with local storm total maxima to 6 inches, are expected across portions of central and northern Arizona, southern Utah, and southwest Colorado through Saturday. Flash flooding is likely in portions of central Arizona, with scattered areas of flash flooding expected across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwest Colorado, and far northwest New Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Large swells generated by Priscilla are affecting the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur as well as portions of coastal southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, in addition to some coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Pasch