000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160234 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Estelle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 15 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 102.0W ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Estelle is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Saturday morning, with that heading at a similar forward speed continuing through late Monday. Estelle is forecast to move parallel to but well offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Estelle could become a hurricane by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Estelle are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico late Saturday and will spread northward to the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg