000 WTPZ31 KNHC 281130 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Agatha Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 700 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 ...AGATHA ON A STRENGTHENING TREND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 98.4W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The southern coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. Agatha is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Agatha is expected to become a hurricane on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible late Sunday or early Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge may be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Chiapas and the eastern portions of Guerrero: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi