000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...PAMELA FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 108.7W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 108.7 West. Pamela is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin overnight and continue through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Restrengthening is expected overnight, and Pamela is forecast to regain hurricane strength before it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico Wednesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown