000 WTPZ31 KNHC 080553 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016 1200 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016 ...JAVIER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 108.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to Todo Santos A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for... * Todo Santos to Cabo San Lazaro * Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * San Evaristo to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. Javier is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Javier should approach the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Javier is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Tuesday morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by Monday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected over the remainder of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area by late Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown