000
WTPZ31 KNHC 030833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

...VANCE MAINTAINING 105 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 110.3W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST.  VANCE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  VANCE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY...BUT A
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT...WITH STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING FORECAST THEREAFTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
IN A DAY OR TWO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH