000
WTPZ31 KNHC 020841
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014

...VANCE INTENSIFYING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 580 MI...930 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST.  VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM PST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG