000
WTPZ31 KNHC 020233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014

...VANCE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 105.4W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. VANCE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND VANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART