000 WTPZ31 KNHC 172036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012 ...PAUL DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 115.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE CENTER OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. SURF...SWELLS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN