000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150850
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL HEADING
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.
 
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART