000
WTPZ31 KNHC 121133
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008

...ODILE APPEARS TO BE LOSING ORGANIZATION RAPIDLY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
105.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.  A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER VERY CLOSE OR ONSHORE WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
ODILE IS LOOSING ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR EVEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...19.0 N...105.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA