000
WTPZ31 KNHC 120852
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008

...ODILE MOVING MORE WESTWARD...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.  A CONTINUED
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE
CENTER OF ODILE A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO...HOWEVER ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD
BRING THE CENTER VERY CLOSE OR ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODILE REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...AND ODILE COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...104.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH