000
WTPZ31 KNHC 120237
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...CENTER OF THE POORLY-ORGANIZED ODILE APPROACHING THE MANZANILLO
AREA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS
WESTWARD TO LA FORTUNA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE TRACK OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ODILE REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...18.2 N...103.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN