000
WTPZ31 KNHC 112035
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS ODILE MUCH WEAKER THAN
ANTICIPATED...
 
AT 2 AM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO LA FORTUNA AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO LA
FORTUNA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE  EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 125 MILES
...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER... ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE TRACK OF THE
FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL
AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...17.9 N...102.8 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA