000
WTPZ31 KNHC 111443
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ODILE ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008
 
...ODILE CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE ON ROUTE...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH EAST OF ZIHUATANEJO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM
ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
 
ODILE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST AT A SLOWER SPEED EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF ODILE VERY CLOSE TO
THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF
THE EXPECTED TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING ODILE TO HURRICANE
STATUS. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ODILE COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...17.2 N...101.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA