000
WTNT35 KNHC 042031
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012
 
...ERNESTO RACING WESTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... 
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 70.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.1 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA TONIGHT AND WILL BE SOUTH OF JAMAICA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  SOME SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TODAY.
 
RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AS ERNESTO MOVES BY THE
ISLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...ARE
POSSIBLE IN ARUBA...CURACAO...AND BONAIRE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA