000
WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL192010
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 81.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEPRESSION.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY...BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER JAMAICA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH