000
WTNT34 KNHC 132037
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
400 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT... 

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
TYLER TEXAS. THIS IS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES...170
KM...SOUTHWEST OF TEXARKANA ARKANSAS.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF IKE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
TODAY...AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND IKE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980.7 MB...28.96
INCHES...WAS MEASURED AT TYLER TEXAS.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE
FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.  AUTOMATED
TIDE GAGES ARE STILL REPORTING STORM SURGE VALUES OF 8 TO 10 FT
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL AREAS. TIDE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH
WILL BRING STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN THROUGH SUNDAY.
 
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
 
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...32.4 N...95.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART