000
WTNT34 KNHC 130656
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
 
...EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON....LANDFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
 
AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...
15 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.
 
DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  STRONGER
WINDS...AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR
ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
 
IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN
FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS.  THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM
STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76
MPH...122 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH...159 KM/HR.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.
 
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME