000
WTNT34 KNHC 110558
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
100 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008
 
...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
  
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO EAST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA WESTWARD
TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...
1040 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...495 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.  A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS
PERIOD...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY OR ON
FRIDAY.
 
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS WAS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.  ABOVE NORMAL
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE
APPROACHES.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.0 N...87.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN