000
WTNT34 KNHC 082339
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
800 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE MOVING VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO
DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.  A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE
AVILA....SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN
BRAC.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CIENFUEGOS CUBA AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA
TONIGHT...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
WATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.7 N...80.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG