000
WTNT34 KNHC 210853
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN...ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.  THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.
 
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER OF THE
STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...87.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH