000
WTNT34 KNHC 201758
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
 
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.  A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.  AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB