000 WTNT33 KNHC 160653 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003 ...ERIKA NEARING COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY DAYBREAK... NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BROWNSVILLE TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S. BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT O'CONNOR. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. AT 2 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ERIKA TO THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND ERIKA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER... THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF ERIKA. THIS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS NEAR ELEVATED TERRAIN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. REPEATING THE MIDNIGHT CDT POSITION...25.6 N... 96.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT. FORECASTER LAWRENCE