000
WTNT32 KNHC 252036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS KAREN WEAKER...
...CONDITIONS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 64.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 64.3 West.  Karen is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A north-
northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward
speed is expected through early Friday.  Karen is then expected to
slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic
into the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall:  Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have
already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some
flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg