000
WTNT32 KNHC 221446
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL ADVISORY NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016

...KARL STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 62.3W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karl
was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 62.3 West.  Karl is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A turn toward
the north with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Friday,
followed by an acceleration toward the northeast on Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Karl is expected to pass near or
to the east of Bermuda Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Friday
evening.

RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches over Bermuda through Saturday and early Sunday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are already affecting Bermuda and
are expected to increase during the next couple of days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Campbell/Rubin-Oster