000
WTNT32 KNHC 110231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014

...FAY EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 64.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. FAY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA BY SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN