000
WTNT32 KNHC 151752
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
200 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
 
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.  A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
 
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN