000
WTNT32 KNHC 141150
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012
800 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
 
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.  
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
NONE.
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA
LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
 
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
 
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
 
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI