000 WTNT32 KNHC 011141 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 800 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 ...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 71.6W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM E OF SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO PARRAMORE ISLAND VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH- NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING WELL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS COULD SPREAD OVER SAN SALVADOR ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. STORM SURGE...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL SHOULD AFFECT THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP CURRENTS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA