000 WTNT31 KNHC 020543 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014 ...ARTHUR A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 79.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST- CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY...PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS....AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING ARTHUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING INTERMITTENTLY ON ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THERE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG PIERS AND JETTIES. THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TODAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN