000
WTNT31 KNHC 041752
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
100 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AIR FORCE
PLANE IS EN ROUTE...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7
MPH...11 KM/HR...BUT A SLOWER MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.
  
...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 82.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB
  
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM EST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN