000
WTNT31 KNHC 030835
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009

...ERIKA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA...
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...
SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7
WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...140 KM...WEST OF GUADELOUPE AND ABOUT 260
MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND APPROACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  OVER PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH