000
WTNT31 KNHC 030241
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA MOVING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DOMINICA
GUADELOUPE... ST. MARTIN...ST. BARTHELEMY... ANTIGUA...
BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST.
MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4
WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE AND
ABOUT 290 MILES...470 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY AND APPROACH PUERTO
RICO LATE TOMORROW. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREFATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
 
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.1N 62.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA