000
WTNT31 KNHC 021447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009
1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009

...ERIKA APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ERIKA.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.  FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.4 WEST OR
ABOUT 100 MILES...165 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.  A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERIKA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...
65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
TODAY WITH SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE TOMORROW.  
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
 
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.  OVER
PUERTO RICO...3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. 
 
...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.5N 60.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN