000
WTNT31 KNHC 150839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008

...DEPRESSION HUGGING THE COAST OF HONDURAS...
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA
AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT
95 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR.  A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.   GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. 
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 
 
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH