000
WTNT31 KNHC 150534
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
200 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008
 
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A
TROPICAL WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE
CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...175 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING
THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS...
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...84.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH