000
WTNT31 KNHC 141453
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008
  
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND A WEST
OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...HOWEVER...
THE CENTER COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN HONDURAS IF THERE IS ANY
DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND 
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES.  THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. 
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...83.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN