000
WTNT31 KNHC 181754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
 
...CENTER OF FAY APPROACHING KEY WEST...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST
OF FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON
SPRINGS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR.  A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 52 MPH...83 KM/HR...
AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 159
FEET.  KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY.  TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.3 N...81.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN