000
WTNT31 KNHC 180850
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
 
...FAY CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND
FLORIDA BAY.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 155 MILES ...250
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
 
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. 
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.  THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE
EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF FAY
EMERGES OVER WATER.  FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.5 N...80.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BERG